Rethinking the competition of export trade based on the bipartite network

Sin-Som Sergio Tsiong, Shuaihang Li, Mingqian Zhang

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. Vol.203, 2026: 117677. 1^st author Corr. author

As trade competition has regained attention in the current global context, this article seeks to develop a competition measurement grounded in a complex-network framework, thereby overcoming the limitations of conventional indicators that neglect “heterogeneity” and “interconnectedness”. We construct a country–commodity bipartite network based on the RCA index and apply the asymmetric reflection algorithm in combination with the Matrix-Estimation Exercise to calculate two indicators: generalized competition intensiveness of country (GCC) and of product (GCP), which quantifies the overall competition status at both the country and commodity levels. Subsequent algorithmic discussions and four case-based analyses support the validity and reliability of the proposed measures, further demonstrating that GCC and GCP are closely interrelated, mutually reinforcing, and determined by export structures rather than trade volumes. Robustness checks across different RCA thresholds, eigenvalue specifications, and trade-data statistical calibers consistently confirm the stability of the results. Cross-sectional comparisons with traditional indicators highlight the superiority of the proposed framework, showing that conventional measures tend to underestimate the competition intensiveness of underdeveloped economies while overestimating that of advanced ones. Finally, sensitivity analyses of intra-country and intra-sector shocks distinguish between two categories of countries, yielding policy insights that suggest divergent developmental pathways.

[DOI] [PDF] [SI]

The Intensity of Outside Options, Vertex Centrality and IMF Conditionality

Tong Wu, Shenshen Zhang, Hongsong Liu

World Economics and Politics (in Chinese). No.2 2026. 115-159+164 2^nd author

International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality has received extensive attention in the studies of international organizations and international political economy. Based on existing studies, the authors propose that the intensity of outside options available to the borrowing country affects its bargaining power vis⁃à⁃vis the IMF. Specifically, the stronger the financing capacity of the Regional Financial Arrangements (RFAs) in which the borrowing country participates, the more lenient the conditions of the IMF loan it receives. At the meantime, while the vertex centrality of the borrowing country can be leveraged to obtain concessions on lending conditions through the IMF's concern about “too big to fail”,the risk of potential financial crises spreading within the region undermines the bargaining power conferred by RFAs. To examine how the intensity of outside options and the degree of vertex centrality of the borrowing countries jointly affect their bargaining power vis⁃à⁃vis the IMF, the authors empirically examine the data of the samples of borrowing countries that have obtained IMF loans from 1995 to 2019. The bargaining process between Latin American Reserve Fund member countries and the IMF empirically validated this theoretical framework.

[CNKI] [Web] [PDF]

Located by Geo-political Shock

Sin-Som Sergio Tsiong

Review of World Economics (Under review). 1^st author Corr. author

The construction of the Global Value Chain (GVC) has greatly benefited the world economy. However, the recent surge in geopolitical conflicts has raised concerns about the potential fragmentation of GVCs, making it crucial for countries to identify effective means of mitigating the adverse political and economic consequences. In this article, we develop a theoretical framework to examine how geopolitical shock risk affects participation in GVCs and to explore which factors may serve as potential moderators, and then, regressions based on a panel dataset of 77 countries covering 1995–2020 are conducted to seek empirical support. The baseline regressions, along with a series of robustness checks and endogeneity settlements, demonstrate that geopolitical shock risk indeed hinders GVC participation, whereas domestic financing convenience exerts a highly significant mitigating effect. Moreover, heterogeneity analyses based on marginal effects suggest that countries participating in different segments of the GVC interact with geopolitical conflicts in heterogeneous ways; in contrast, inter-sectoral level analyses highlight the strong consistency of the negative effects of geopolitical shock risk and the robust effectiveness of domestic financing convenience in alleviating such impacts.

[SI]

IMF “rescues” populism: How social trust comes into effect?

Sin-Som (Sergio) Tsiong, Hongsong Liu

The Review of International Organizations (Under review). 1^st author

As integral pillars of global governance, International Organizations (IOs) merit systematic scrutiny regarding their roles in the ascent of populism and the mechanisms through which the adverse political repercussions that populism imposes on the international system — can be offset. This article contends that, despite the pivotal position of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in global governance, the “incompatibility” between its lending conditionalities and policy requirements of recipient states, together with the “unaffordability” of the reforms it imposes, often catalyze populist takeovers. Conversely, societal trust dampens such a triggering effect of IMF conditionalities on populist incumbency within recipient states. Drawing on 5,671 primary IMF documents incorporated with LLM-based contextual analyses, this article constructs an original dataset that operationalizes the incompatibility and unaffordability of IMF conditionalities. Using a sampleconsists of countries that exists debt-creditor relationship with the IMF between 1980 and 2019, baseline regressions and a series of robustness checks demonstrate that IMF conditionalities indeed systematically spur (predominantly left-wing) populist takeovers in recipient states; at the same time, the article artificially codes the rotation schedule of elected directors with their alternatives of the IMF Executive Board from the IMF Annual Reports and employs it as the instrumental variable; the results after addressing potential endogeneity remain robust. Furthermore, based on 667 thousand respondents integrated from the World Values Survey (WVS) and European Values Survey (EVS), and modeled via the GPC-MP (Monotonic Polynomial Generalized Partial Credit) model, this article constructs the third original dataset, which captures national levels of social trust; subsequent moderation analyses confirm that higher social trust significantly mitigates the impact of IMF conditionalities on populist incumbency

Legitimizing Sanctions: The Role FATF in Global Anti-terrorist Financing Revisited

Haiwen Lin, Shenshen Zhang, Hongsong Liu

Submitted to: British Journal of Political Science. 2^nd author

This study examines how the United States leverages multilateral institutions to enhance the effectiveness of financial sanctions in counter-terrorist financing governance. Through an analysis of the dual-pressure mechanism involving U.S. Treasury sanctions and Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklisting, we demonstrate how institutional nesting processes enable major powers to legitimize coercive measures and amplify their policy impact. Using a mixed-methods approach combining panel data analysis of 173 countries (2001-2023) with comparative case studies of Pakistan and the Philippines, we find that the interaction between U.S. sanctions and FATF pressure produces significantly stronger compliance effects than either mechanism alone. The study provides new insights into how multilateral institutions can serve as vehicles for hegemonic power projection in global governance.

The Impact of International Monetary Fund Loan Conditionality on Populism

Shenshen Zhang, Hongsong Liu

Working Paper. 1^st author

As an important component of global governance, examining the role played by international organizations in the rise of populism is undoubtedly significant. As an extremely important international organization within the global governance system, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has long been the subject of controversy over the loan conditions it imposes on recipient countries, and has been accused of being responsible for the emergence of public discontent and the rise of radical political parties. This paper argues that the IMF's loan conditions, by triggering economic insecurity and a sense of relative deprivation among the populations of recipient countries, have prompted these populations to turn to support for radical populist parties, ultimately leading to the rise of populism. Based on a sample of countries that engaged in lending transactions with the IMF between 1980 and 2019, the benchmark regression and a series of robustness checks in this paper all indicate that the imposition of IMF loan conditions systematically triggers the rise of populist rule in recipient countries, with left-wing forms of populist rule being more likely than right-wing forms. Building on this, this paper selects Greece, which experienced a sovereign debt crisis and received IMF loan assistance, for a case study to demonstrate the causal mechanism through which IMF loan conditions facilitate the rise of populist parties.

How does complex knowledge promote regional economic growth within the "Belt and Road"?

Shenshen Sergio Zhang, Shuaihang Li, Mingqian Zhang

Review of Development Economics (Under review). 1^st author Corr. author

As economic globalization shifts towards regionalization, complex knowledge becomes more crucial. Recently, a burgeoning literature has explored how complex knowledge facilitates economic growth. Given the representativeness of the ``Belt and Road" Initiative in world economic regionalization, we extend this discussion within the countries involved, and make several distinctions. First, by combining the Fitness and Complexity (FC) Algorithm and the matrix-estimation exercise in the bipartite network, we develop a more comprehensive and effective method to measure knowledge complexity based on the similarity and specialization of patents’ outputting structure. Second, by employing the Instrument Variable Fixed Effect Quantile Regression (IV-FEQR) method, we investigate the economic effects of complex knowledge production while considering heterogeneity and endogeneity issues. Our findings indicate that increasing knowledge complexity significantly promotes a country's economic growth, a result that remains robust across various checks. The benchmark result can be explained theoretically well through the macro-level international competitive advantage and micro-level innovational practice, both enhanced by complex knowledge and the two underlying driving forces that can also be empirically identified. Heterogeneity results further reveal that the promotion effect varies across regions and “expirations”. Our analysis offers practical insights for measuring knowledge complexity and provides important policy implications for boosting economic growth under the current geopolitical tension.